## v4: School Reopening Scenarios (1)

V4 attempts to replay the development so far, and explores results of various school attendance scenarios and two levels of restrictions on non-school activity:

- The simulations refer to the **Berlin** region (Berlin city plus some surroundings).
- The **base doubling time is approx. 3 days**. It corresponds to the German growth rate 2nd & 3rd week of Mar, i.e. with slight cultural adaptations but not policy interventions.
- On **day 26**, 10% of leisure acts are banned (corresponding to the closure of theaters, etc.) Also, schools / kindergarten / universities are closed. 10 percent of kita and primary-aged children still go to kita / primary schools (Notbetrieb)
- On **day 35**, work, shopping, errands and business are restricted, corresponding to the currently valid "Kontaktsperre":
  - **Type A**: Work and shopping 60% reduced; leisure, business and errands 80% reduced
  - **Type B**: Work and shopping 80% reduced; leisure, business and errands 90% reduced
- On **day 63**, educational facilities can be reopened (estimated to be the 20th of April).

Some results:
- The **doubling time of the intervention of "Type A" is approx. 13 days**, which is _more optimistic_ than what we currently measure (approx. 9 days).
- "Type B" is even more optimistic.

What has changed compring to v2?

- Inclusion of school population
