In our opinion, the current situation is stable mainly because contact tracing works well and is supported by further measures (15% still in the home office, closure of universities, masks in public transport and when shopping, cautious behaviour, measures in occupational safety, no major events).

Our model says that in autumn, the pressure on contact tracing will increase due to school openings, return of events indoors, and increasingly less-cautious behaviour. Due to the volatility of the situation, we recommend defining packages of measures that can be applied if infection rates rise again. If such an increase in infection rates cannot be slowed down, contact tracing will be overburdened.

A return to the restrictive regime of spring 2020 (hopefully only locally-enacted) would then be necessary until the numbers are low again. The alternative would be acceptance of permanent, much higher infection rates such as in the USA.
