The current Omicron wave is a superposition of waves of different subvariants, currently mainly BA.1 and BA.2, with the BA.1 wave preceding the BA.2 wave in time. According to current data, the BA.2 variant is even more contagious than the BA.1 variant. The peak of the BA.1 wave was in mid-February. Since then, real-time hospitalization figures have been declining (see section 4, p. 3).

The proportions of BA.2 infections to all Covid infections have been increasing by a similar percentage each week for several weeks. From these values, it can be inferred that BA.2 will represent the majority of Covid infections by the end of February. The level and timing of the maximum are difficult to predict because they depend, among other things, on the currently unknown strength of cross-immunity between BA.1 and BA.2, as well as on the unpredictable recreational activity level of the population (see Section 5, p. 3).

A corresponding number of hospital cases can be expected to develop from these BA.2 cases. In order to be able to implement appropriate measures in time, the situation should be monitored primarily on the basis of daily hospitalization incidences (see Section 6, p. 5).

Furthermore, we discuss the planned reopening steps. According to the simulation, a "swap" of the 2G regulation in the retail sector against an FFP2 mask requirement has hardly any effect. The effect of most of the opening steps depends on how much of a signaling effect they will have: If they merely shift the current amount of out-of-home leisure, then this also results in no effect for infection incidence - or at best, even a positive one if activities are shifted from indoors to outdoors. If, on the other hand, the relaxation signal causes the level of activity in leisure time to rise again to pre-pandemic levels, then we expect a further increase in the number of infections based on the model predictions (cf. section 7, p. 5).
