Mobility data show that the population was disciplined in following contact reductions in January.

With the weekly incidence reaching 50/100,000, slight relaxations are possible. Severe relaxations with increased indoor contacts at this time would immediately return to an R > 1 and thus a resurgence in infection numbers.

Because of the nature of the exponential increase, this would not at first seem problematic. But if we want to avoid a situation like the one in November, this must not be indulged; political and social consensus must be established that R < 1 is a political goal.

Because of the B117 and B1351 mutations, the situation has become more difficult; the November measures would no longer be sufficient to keep R even close to 1. Vaccines are not coming fast enough to help us in the next 2-3 months.

According to our simulations, a full opening of schools would be just about possible, but would use up all the room for maneuvering, and thus require, among other things, that the population maintain current recreational restrictions. On the other hand, a partial opening with mandatory masking and alternating classes would leave further room for maneuvering.

These margins could be used to open more unproblematic infection contexts, such as retail stores, soccer stadiums, cultural institutions, or outdoor events.

Opening the interiors of restaurants continues to be impossible in the longer term if R is to remain < 1. This is because of the combination of confined space, poor ventilation, loud talking, and no opportunity to wear a mask while eating. Restaurants should be advised right away to prepare for outdoor dining, and financial compensation should be sought if necessary. Otherwise, opening the restaurants would make all other openings from above impossible.

In our opinion, the labor sector could once again make additional contributions to infection reduction. These contributions include increasing home offices or individual offices and wearing medical masks when individual offices are not possible.
