We have developed models for the Christmas season. This was a challenge because we cannot estimate how the population will behave.

A model in which the population behaves during the two-week Christmas vacation the same as on normal weekend days (without restrictions, but also without Christmas reinforcements) will lead to an explosion of new infections as well as hospital numbers **up to 5 times the current level** (!)

A model in which the population takes this freedom only on Christmas and New Year's Eve holidays leads to an approximately 50% increase in new infections, as well as corresponding hospital numbers.

If a corresponding tightening of the rules for the Christmas period is not made, it should at least be made clear in communication that the current rules, which in principle allow daily meetings, should under no circumstances be lifted.

Timely restrictive measures to push down new infections before Christmas to such an extent that an increase in hospital numbers after the holidays could be afforded by the hospitals seem hardly possible; only much more restrictive measures than those currently in force from December 7 until the holidays would achieve this according to our calculations.

After Christmas, if the current restrictions are extended, a return to the regime of contact tracing will only be possible from about the beginning of April; until then, the current restrictions would have to be maintained. Depending on the course of the temperature increase towards summer, this point in time may also shift either forward or backward; the planned vaccinations will probably stabilize this, but will not shift it significantly forward (further research on this is planned for the next report).

A much earlier return to the contact tracing regime is only predicted if much stronger restrictions are introduced and maintained (discussed in this report).

Our mathematical model is on the verge of being able to predict hospital loads for each state for about 4 weeks, independent of the complex calculations of the agent-based model. We show the first results in this report.
