This report begins by reporting on the new Omicron BA.5 variant and the ensuing summer wave of infections. Based on the current state of research relating to the infectivity and severity of BA.5, our model predicts a surge of infections but not an overloading of the public health system (see section 3).

As in the previous reports, we also consider possible scenarios for the late Fall and Winter. We simulate the effects of two scenarios: one "fair" and one "rather unfavorable." The "fair" scenario stipulates that a further immune-escape variant (next to BA.5) emerges in the simulation in November. The "rather unfavorable" scenario assigns a significantly higher disease severity to this new variant. In the previous report we concluded (on the basis of our model) that the healthcare system could be overloaded in this "rather unfavorable" scenario, even with an additional vaccination campaign. This report explores and quantifies the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, which could dampen or avoid the overloading of the healthcare system. To avoid a wave all-together, rather than just flattening the curve, our model stipulates that restrictions on leisure activities that occur inside with high person-density are unavoidable (see section 4).