Our prediction is that although the restrictions in place since November 2nd will bring infection growth close to zero (i.e., the reinfection rate R close to 1), they will not be significant enough to return to low infection rates.

Unfortunately, at the same time, the infection rates are now so high that contact tracing no longer makes a noticeable contribution. Only very restrictive measures could reduce the infection rates before Christmas to a level where contact tracing is effective again.

Other important points:

- We argue that measures for reducing every activity type should be considered

- We translate the infection probability contained in our simulation into a simple infection calculator (link above).

- We show how our second mathematical model is now able to predict hospital exposure.
