We consider different scenarios for the further course of the pandemic throught the beginning of 2023, and analyze the maximum possible effects of mandatory vaccination concepts based on these scenarios. For this purpose we define, among others, a rather favorable scenario in which the properties of the corona virus do not change significantly, and a rather unfavorable scenario where the properties of the corona virus change, with negative consequences for the population and the expected infection dynamics. (cf. Section 4, p. 3).

In the favorable scenario, our model predicts a wave for the next winter with a similar level as now. In the unfavorable scenario, the model predicts a wave that could overburden the health care system many times over - if no countermeasures are taken (cf. Section 5, p. 4).

According to the model, in both scenarios compulsory vaccination for all people over the age of 18 would reduce hospital numbers by a maximum of a factor of 2. Thus, in the unfavorable scenario, mandatory vaccination alone could not prevent an overload of the health care system. Closing the vaccination gap is an important component, but it would have to be combined with other measures (cf. Section 6, p. 5f.).
