The results of the last two weeks were based on simulation with a so-called agent-based model (ABM).

Since the last report, we have started to look at different group sizes and their relationship to so-called "super-spreaders", as well as the influence of activity shifting outdoors during the summer.  However, we have not yet gone far enough with these investigations to report corresponding results.

At best, we can say that the pure effect of the shift outside (i.e. without additional potential seasonality of the virus and/or our immune systems) is of a similar order of magnitude to other typical measures, such as "reduction of leisure activities by 50%" or "closure of all schools". 

In other words, the effect alone is unlikely to be decisive, but in the sum of all contributions it should nevertheless play a relevant role.

