We consider possible scenarios of virus development for the coming months. If an Omicron (or a similar variant) remains dominant, our model predicts a fall wave beginning after the summer vacation. In this case, according to the model, the burden on the healthcare system will be similar to that of the current wave. However, if a new immune-escape variant emerges, the profile of the resulting wave will depend on the time of entry, regardless of the season. If the immune escape variant is as dangerous as the delta variant in terms of disease severity, our model predicts an overload of the healthcare system once more (see section 4).

Our simulations show that such waves can be significantly contained by broad vaccination campaigns and that the burden on the healthcare system can be substantially reduced. In the case of a variant with a delta-like disease severity, our simulations suggest that even a strong vaccination campaign won’t stave off a healthcare system overload. If one aims to avoid overburdening the healthcare system, additional significant countermeasures would be needed in this scenario (see Sections 5 and 6).

