Our simulations, based on synthetic movement trajectories from traffic planning and models for infection dynamics and disease progression from the literature, come to the following results for the Berlin region (Berlin plus surrounding area, approx. 5 million people):

1. In an uncontrolled course, the number of infected persons would have virtually exploded; at the peak, almost 18,000 would have needed an intensive care/ventilation bed.
2. Even if current measures are maintained, the number of infected persons continues to rise slowly. Consequently, the number of "critical" patients (= need ventilation/intensive care beds) is also continuing to rise slowly. For the latter, our simulations predict the maximum (only) for about mid-June, with about 3000 critical patients.
3. An opening of kindergartens and schools would accelerate the increase again; the maximum of the "critical" patients would then be reached already in mid-May, with about 6250 critical patients.
4. Opening of "kindergartens only" or "schools only" would lead in the model to a good 4600 or almost 5000 critical patients, respectively.
